A recent survey conducted by the Brenthurst Group has provided intriguing insights into the political landscape of South Africa, particularly in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). The survey, which gathered data from 1,500 registered voters between September and October this year, has raised questions about the African National Congress (ANC)’s future.
The results indicate that the ANC may face a fierce challenge from the Multi-party Charter, with both parties potentially running neck-and-neck in Gauteng. Moreover, the survey predicts a decline in the ANC’s share of the vote, falling to 37% in the upcoming 2024 elections. KwaZulu-Natal, traditionally an ANC stronghold, may see the ANC’s voter share drop to a mere 32%. This article delves into the implications of these findings, shedding light on the evolving political landscape in South Africa.
1. ANC’s Declining Prospects
The survey’s most notable revelation is the potential decline in the ANC’s popularity. In Gauteng, a critical province for the ANC, it may no longer enjoy a dominant position. The survey suggests a significant drop, projecting the ANC to secure only 37% of the vote share. This shift reflects the growing challenge the party faces from competitors.
2. Vulnerability in KwaZulu-Natal
KwaZulu-Natal, traditionally a stronghold for the ANC, is also showing signs of vulnerability. The survey indicates that the ANC’s share of the vote might plummet to 32%, a worrisome development for a party that once enjoyed unwavering support in the region. This raises questions about the factors contributing to the ANC’s decline in areas it previously dominated.
3. Impact of High Turnout
Numerous polls suggest that a high voter turnout might be advantageous for the ANC. The party’s prospects in Gauteng and KZN appear to hinge on razor-thin margins, and a strong turnout could potentially tip the scales in its favor. Consequently, encouraging voter participation becomes a pivotal strategy for the ANC in the upcoming elections.
4. Multi-party Charter and the DA’s Presidential Candidate
The survey also explored voter awareness of the Multi-party Charter for South Africa, with results indicating limited knowledge among respondents. However, for those who were aware, the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) John Steenhuisen emerged as a favored candidate for the charter’s presidential role. This highlights the importance of the DA’s choice in shaping the political landscape.
5. Shifting Political Popularity
Notably, the survey revealed shifts in political popularity. President Cyril Ramaphosa, while remaining a favored politician, saw a drop in his popularity rating from 48% to 42%. This may indicate a need for the ANC to reassess its strategy and communication to maintain voter support. Furthermore, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) witnessed growth, rising from 11% to 17%, signaling their increasing influence in South African politics.
The survey conducted by the Brenthurst Group paints a challenging picture for the ANC in the upcoming South African elections. The party’s potential decline in voter share, especially in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, suggests a shifting political landscape. With uncertainty surrounding voter turnout and the emergence of new political dynamics, the ANC faces a critical juncture in its history. As the Multi-party Charter gains traction and the DA’s candidate garners attention, the ANC must adapt and respond to these changing dynamics to secure its future in South African politics.